Colorado at Georgia Tech — Justice Haynes Rushing Prop Breakdown

Play: Justice Haynes 80+ Rushing Yards — ★★ 2-Star Play

Projected Haynes Line: 15 carries, 102 rushing yards

Game Projection: Georgia Tech 34, Colorado 24

This is a much cleaner way for me to attack Colorado-Georgia Tech than simply laying the touchdown with the Yellow Jackets.

The entire matchup points toward Georgia Tech establishing the running game, and Justice Haynes gives us a lower threshold than asking Georgia Tech to win by margin. At 80+ rushing yards, we don't need Haynes to dominate the backfield for 25 carries. We need roughly 14-16 opportunities and normal efficiency against a defense that was one of the worst in the country against the run last season.

Why We Like Haynes 80+

• Colorado allowed 222.5 rushing yards per game in 2025, ranking 133rd nationally. That was the defining weakness of the Buffaloes' defense.
• Georgia Tech already showed us the matchup last year. The Jackets went into Boulder and rushed for 320 yards in a 27-20 victory. Quarterback Haynes King supplied 156 of those yards, but the larger point is that Colorado could not consistently handle Georgia Tech's physical run structure.
• Justice Haynes was incredibly efficient at Michigan last season: 121 carries, 857 yards and 10 touchdowns in only seven games — 7.1 yards per carry and 122.4 rushing yards per game.
• Haynes topped 100 rushing yards in six of seven games. The only game he failed to reach 100 was USC, when he received just 10 carries and still gained 51 yards.

Here's the part I really like: every time Haynes received at least 14 carries last season, he went over 100 yards.

His six games with 14-plus carries:

• 16 carries — 159 yards
• 19 carries — 125 yards
• 14 carries — 104 yards
• 17 carries — 149 yards
• 19 carries — 117 yards
• 26 carries — 152 yards

We only need 80.

The Carry Math Works

This doesn't require Haynes to maintain a ridiculous 7.1-yard average.

To get to 80:

• 12 carries at 6.7 yards = 80 yards
• 14 carries at 5.7 yards = 80 yards
• 16 carries at 5.0 yards = 80 yards

I project Haynes for roughly 15 carries.

At even 5.5 yards per carry, that's 82.5 yards.

At 6.0, it's 90.

At anything resembling his 2025 efficiency, he's approaching or clearing 100.

That's why I prefer the 80+ alternate rushing yard threshold instead of getting greedy with 100+.

Georgia Tech's Offensive Identity Helps Us

Georgia Tech is breaking in Alberto Mendoza, who will make his first collegiate start.

That should push George Godsey toward the strongest and most experienced area of his offense rather than asking Mendoza to throw 35-40 times in his debut.

And Georgia Tech's staff hasn't exactly hidden the plan. Co-offensive coordinator Chris Weinke made it clear during preseason preparation that the Yellow Jackets expect opponents to know they're going to run — and intend to run it anyway.

The personnel supports that philosophy.

Georgia Tech's offensive-line room enters the season with:

• 160 combined collegiate games
• 85 career starts
• Ethan Mackenny returning after starting all 13 games last season
• Malachi Carney returning with 28 career starts

There are new starters inside, so this isn't the exact same line from 2025. But the two veteran tackles give Brent Key a legitimate foundation for a physical rushing attack.

And remember who Key is.

He's a former Georgia Tech offensive lineman who coached offensive lines at Georgia Tech, UCF and Alabama. Physical football isn't something Georgia Tech suddenly decided to try this week.

It's the program identity.

Colorado Improved — But Has to Prove It

This is the counterargument to the play.

Colorado knew its run defense was unacceptable and attacked the problem aggressively.

The Buffaloes brought in:

• Gideon Lampron, who had 119 tackles and 17.5 tackles for loss at Bowling Green last season.
• Liona Lefau, who arrives from Texas with 22 career starts and 139 tackles.
• Toby Anene, who had seven sacks at North Dakota State last season.
• Lamont Lester Jr., who produced 9.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss at Monmouth.
• Additional experienced defensive-line transfers throughout the rotation.

This Colorado front is more talented on paper.

But that's the phrase that matters:

On paper.

These players haven't played a game together.

Run defense requires everyone fitting the same play correctly — defensive tackles occupying the proper gaps, linebackers scraping to the right place and edge defenders maintaining leverage.

Georgia Tech gets to test all of that immediately with Haynes and one of the deepest running-back rooms in the country.

The Biggest Concern: Malachi Hosley

This is why the play is two stars rather than three.

Georgia Tech doesn't need to give Haynes 22 carries.

Malachi Hosley is legitimately good.

Hosley rushed for 697 yards on only 98 carries last season, also averaging 7.1 yards per attempt. Georgia Tech's official notes point out that Haynes and Hosley were two of only seven FBS backs with at least 80 attempts who averaged 7.0 yards per carry in 2025.

Trelain Maddox is involved as well, and Georgia Tech actually listed Haynes, Hosley and Maddox as starters at running back on its Week 1 depth chart.

So this is not a traditional workhorse situation.

That's the risk.

If Haynes gets 10-11 carries while Hosley gets 9-10 and Maddox gets another handful, 80 becomes much more difficult.

But I think Haynes gets enough.

Georgia Tech didn't bring in a back who averaged 122.4 yards per game in the Big Ten to give him eight touches in the opener.

My expectation is something around:

Haynes: 14-17 carries

Hosley: 8-11 carries

Maddox/others: 4-7 carries

That is enough volume for our number.

Game Script Is Favorable

Another reason I like the rushing prop is that I don't expect Georgia Tech to abandon the run.

My independent game projection remains:

Georgia Tech 34, Colorado 24

The current market has Georgia Tech around -6.5, but our projection was built separately from that number.

The important part for this prop is the expected game shape.

I don't have Georgia Tech chasing Colorado by two touchdowns and throwing on every possession.

I expect:

• A competitive first half.
• Georgia Tech repeatedly testing Colorado's rebuilt front.
• Haynes and Hosley wearing on the defense.
• Georgia Tech playing from ahead during much of the second half.
• More rushing volume in the fourth quarter rather than less.

That is exactly the environment we want for an 80-yard rushing ladder.

Why 80+ Instead of 100+

Haynes certainly has 100-yard upside.

In fact, I project him slightly above 100.

But this is about selecting the best threshold, not the sexiest payout.

80+ gives us protection against the running-back rotation.

Haynes can have a very good game like:

14 carries, 86 yards

and we cash.

He can lose goal-line touches to Hosley.

He can have a 25-yard run wiped away from his touchdown opportunities because another back rotates in.

None of that matters to 80+.

We simply need enough carries against a defense we're willing to challenge.

Final Play

★★ Justice Haynes 80+ Rushing Yards

Projected: 15 carries, 102 yards

The foundation of the handicap is simple:

Elite rushing efficiency + favorable matchup + inexperienced starting QB + Georgia Tech's commitment to the run + positive projected game script.

Colorado may eventually become a much better run-defense team with all the talent it imported.

I'm asking them to prove that tonight, in Game 1, on the road, against Justice Haynes and a Georgia Tech offense specifically constructed to make them stop the run.

At only 80 yards, I'll make them prove it.

★★ 2-Star Play: Justice Haynes 80+ rushing yards.